While I will admit it is probably entirely too early to be writing this article, watching the next generation of young talent is one of my favorite aspects of being an NBA fan, so... I'm writing it now. I am well aware that no rookie has played more than 8 games and it is probably a little harsh to make any sweeping judgments on players this new to the league so quickly. This article will serve as an initial reaction to the early-season performances we have seen from this year's rookie class. I will publish new Rookie Rankings throughout the course of the season (about every 3 weeks to a month or so) before submitting my unofficial but also very official Rookie of the Year ballot at the conclusion of the regular season. Without further ado, my top-5 rookies through the first two weeks of the 22-23 NBA season....
1. Paolo Banchero, Forward, Orlando Magic
8 G, 21.8 PPG, 7.6 REB, 3.6 AST, 1.0 BLK, 33.8 MPG, 44.0% FG, 28.1% 3PT
I mean, was it really going to be anyone else? Banchero, the number one overall pick in June's draft, has made the transition from the college game to the professional level seem effortless. On opening night, Banchero dropped 27 points (11/18 shooting) with 9 rebounds and 5 assists in a loss to the Detroit Pistons, a game that included a lot of exciting young talent and a posterizing dunk from Banchero. Banchero was the first rookie since LeBron James to put up a 25-5-5 in his NBA debut.
Perhaps his most impressive game, however, was a 29-point (10/19 FG), 8-rebound, 4-assist, and 2-block showing against a Cavaliers team that has shown itself to be elite defensively so far. Banchero went toe-to-toe against second-year player and elite defender Evan Mobley in that game and even had a nice block of Mobley's driving layup. The Magic lost the game, but Banchero proved he can compete at the highest level.
The Italian national team player simply looks like he belongs in the NBA. If you had no idea who Banchero was, you would think he was a 10-year NBA veteran after watching him play for the first time. His 6'10" 250lb frame gives him the raw strength to battle in the interior with bigs, but he also has a solid dribble package and loves getting to his fadeaway midrange jumper. Banchero has elite vision for his size and has done a great job setting up teammates for open shots and throwing lobs to cutters (he's developed a nice partnership with Bol Bol). He can pretty much do it all within the three-point line, with that 28.1% three-point percentage (on 4.0 attempts) being the one knock on his game early. He shot 33% from three (3.3 attempts) in his one season at Duke, so it's not like he's a knockdown three-point shooter, but still expect that percentage to creep into the low 30s this season. His jumper is too fluid and natural for him to shoot in the 20s from behind the arc.
Please keep in mind that Banchero's stat line is NOT NORMAL for a rookie 8 games into his career. No fan or team should expect this type of production from a player in his first season, I don't care if the team is awful and he has more opportunity to put up gaudy numbers. We have gotten used to seeing rookies produce from day one, but this hasn't been the cast throughout the majority of NBA history. Alas, the Magic look like they've got a sure-fire All-NBA caliber player in Banchero.
2. Bennedict Mathurin, Guard, Indiana Pacers
8 G, 20.4 PPG, 4.3 REB, 2.1 AST, 27.0 MPG, 45.6% FG, 42.9% 3PT
A surprisingly hot start from Mathurin earns him the second spot on my list, and there are plenty of people out there that might put him first. I have Banchero a slot above Mathurin because it feels like he can replicate the success more consistently over the course of an 82-game schedule, but I digress. Mathurin has been extremely impressive for a Pacers team that, as outlined in my team report on them back in August, is all of a sudden one of the more exciting young teams in the league. Mathurin has been putting up these numbers while coming off the bench which makes one wonder if either A. He's a lock for the Sixth Man of the Year award or B. He needs to get slotted into the starting rotation ASAP.
I say "surprisingly hot start from Mathurin" not as a knock, fans just did not expect him to be this good this quickly. We knew Mathurin had the potential to score at an elite level we just did not expect him to show his full potential from day one. Mathurin is shooting a blistering 42.9% (6.1 attempts) from behind the arc through his first 8 games in the league. His shot is as smooth as silk and he has been draining threes from everywhere except the corners. His scoring ability was on full display Saturday night in Brooklyn when he dropped 32 points while going 6/9 from three and 8/16 from the field in a convincing Pacers win.
What has really stood out with Mathurin so far, however, has been his ability to beat defenders and score at the basket, with or without contact. His elite athleticism was his defining trait amongst scouts and media throughout the draft process, and he has put that on full display as he baits defenders with pump fakes (as they have to honor his jumper) before flying past them off the dribble and finishing at the rim. His elite shooting combined with his off-the-dribble game and athleticism should have Pacers fans giddy for the future. Oh, and he's a perfect partner with his backcourt partner Tyrese Haliburton. Finally, a reason to tune into Pacers games on League Pass!
3. Jaden Ivey, Guard, Detroit Pistons
7 G, 15.7 PPG, 4.3 REB, 3.7 AST, 1.3 STL, 31.1 MPG, 46.1% FG, 34.5% 3PT
A key piece of what people are now dubbing "The Bright Future Pistons." As chronicled in my Pistons Team Report from July, the Pistons' young core of Cunningham, Ivey, and Duren has the chance to contend for championships in the coming years. Ivey's seamless transition to the NBA game has Pistons fans drooling over their future.
Ivey has already flashed all of the skills that had him so high on draft boards back in June: explosive athleticism, high-quality scoring ability, and underrated vision. Ivey is nearly impossible to stay in front when he's driving to the basket and a nifty around-the-basket game gives him the ability to finish in a variety of ways. This clip from Monday's close loss to the undefeated Bucks shows exactly that. Ivey leaves defender George Hill in the dust before finishing through contact at the rim against center Brook Lopez. There are a handful of players in the league that have a first step as good as Ivey's (think of the Ja Morant and Tyrese Maxeys of the world). Ivey has been doing this on a nightly basis for a Pistons team that is starting to get into a bit of a groove.
The scariest aspect of Ivey's potential is the fact that with his unreal athleticism, he only really has a foundational dribble package at this stage of his career. It's not a bad package, just not an elite one yet and he's still flying past defenders off the dribble. As Ivey develops a more advanced dribble package, similar to how Ja Morant's has evolved over his young career, he will only become a more lethal scorer. Ivey has the foundation to become a 25 PPG career scorer, and that is just the floor in my opinion.
One last note on Ivey: the one knock on him in the draft process was that he often falls asleep and/or does not give any effort on the defensive end. As predicted in my team report, Ivey has already become a much more active defender thanks to buy-in and his athleticism. Yes, the Pistons have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing the third most points so far, but Ivey is at least active on that end of the floor. He will be a competent NBA defender.
4. Keegan Murray, Forward, Sacramento Kings
5 G, 17.4 PPG, 4.0 REB, 1.4 AST, 1.0 BLK, 49.3% FG, 39.5% 3PT
I promise I am not doing this list purely based on the PPG leaders amongst rookies. Murray has only played 5 games in his rookie season, the least on this list so far, but he has impressed me and pretty much everyone else in that short amount of time.
Murray, similar to Banchero, fits the part. His game has an NBA-ready feel to it, which is a welcome sign for Kings fans as he was one of the "older" prospects in his draft class at 22 years old. Murray has a completely natural scoring ability that is a ton of fun to watch. Thanks to a silky smooth jumper, Murray has averaged 17.4 PPG through 5 games and has not scored less than 12 points in a game. Again, it is NOT NORMAL for a rookie to come into the league and make scoring look so easy.
Murray has already become one of Sacramento's better defenders, which has been extremely welcomed as the team struggles with interior defense. Murray has the ability to guard 3-5 thanks to his large frame and strength. Look for Murray to develop as one of the better two-way talents in this year's class.
The Kings' offense feels pretty clogged so far, which is certainly a major factor in their slow start, but Murray contributed 22 points, a career-high so far, to their 119-113 win over Miami on Saturday night. Side note: Sacramento should trade Harrison Barnes, an expiring contract, to Cleveland or Boston. Barnes is just another guy that needs to touch the ball and trading him to a contender could yield them a solid return. With Fox as their primary scorer, Murray could become an elite second-scoring option with Barnes out of the fold. Nonetheless, while Sacramento got a ton of hate for picking Murray over Ivey in June, early returns should have Kings fans excited for their future.
5. Jalen Duren, Center, Detroit Pistons
7 G, 7.4 PPG, 6.7 REB, 0.1 AST, 1.3 BLK, 20.7 MPG, 56.1% FG
Probably the first surprise on my list, as I think a lot of people would have Jabari Smith Jr. in this fifth slot. The reason I went Duren over Smith is because of how well Duren has fit in with the young Pistons core and the fact that I can clearly see how he will affect winning basketball. Smith has been fine so far but he's struggled shooting the ball and I wouldn't say he's blown anyone's socks off. Duren just feels like a winning basketball player and I can see him being a key cog in Detroit's future postseason runs.
Duren isn't a flashy big. He's not going to stretch the floor and stroke it from behind the arc. That's fine and, to be honest, a stretch five just doesn't feel like DEETROIT basketball. What Duren is, however, is a bruiser. His talent was on full display in his NBA debut against the Magic two weeks ago, where he dropped 14 points with 10 rebounds and 3 blocks in 21 minutes. The guy can defend the rim at a high level and drop his shoulder into defenders' chests on offense.
Duren has a knack to be at the right place at the right time. He can cut to the basket and finish lobs and putback dunks with ferocity. He's playing with the second unit right now, behind Isaiah Stewert (who's having the best season of his career by the way), and I imagine he is a nightmare for opposing benches to have to deal with. Duren is the kind of player that will have opposition players sore and bruised on the bus to the airport. He's the perfect big man for the future of basketball in Detroit. Oh, and he's the youngest player in the league at 18 years old (turns 19 this month FWIW).
JUST Missed the Cut:
Jabari Smith Jr., Forward, Houston Rockets
Not shooting the ball well (32.6% FG, 33.3% 3PT) but has shown a defensive upside that gives him a floor as a solid NBA player. The shooting stroke looks absolutely pure, so I fully expect the shots to start dropping for Smith. He could and probably will creep into the top 5 this season.
Shaedon Sharpe, Guard, Portland Trail Blazers
Only playing 18 minutes a game for Portland so far, but my word has he shown signs of being a high-level scorer. He's shooting 42.9% from three (2.3 attempts) and 50.0% from the field while displaying unreal bounce. Please click on that clip and watch Sharpe levitate to the rim.
I See You, Rook (Doing Things but Not Top-5 Caliber):
Jeremy Sochan, Forward, San Antonio Spurs
Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
Jake LaRavia, Guard, Memphis Grizzlies
Dyson Daniels, Guard, New Orleans Pelicans
That's it for the first edition of my NBA Rookie Rankings. Tune back in a few weeks for an updated ranking as we get more of a sample size from this exciting rookie class!
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