Mookie Betts is a great MVP pick in 2024. (Conor P. Fitzgerald/Shutterstock)
WILLIAM LOCKE
We are roughly two weeks away from the Dodgers and Padres opening the 2024 MLB season in Korea and three weeks away from Opening Day for the rest of the league. Hope runs high for many fanbases this time of year with that lingering thought in the back of their minds that maybe, just maybe, this will finally be their team's year. Every team, even the A's, has a player that gives their fanbase some form of excitement for the upcoming season. It could be a younger player who is poised to have a breakout season, an established superstar that you can't believe you get to watch play for your team every night, or a pitcher who needs to make just a couple of small adjustments to become a Cy Young candidate or maybe a big offseason acquisition that could be the key to your team's World Series breakthrough. Here are six players that I cannot wait to watch play this season.
Mookie Betts
All of the attention, deservedly so, surrounding the Dodgers this year will be focused on Shohei Ohtani. For all of Ohtani's greatness, let's not forget just how incredible a player Mookie Betts is.
If it weren't for a historic season from Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2023, Mookie Betts would have won his second MVP award and become the second player in MLB history to win an MVP in both the American and National Leagues (Frank Robinson, 1961 Reds & 1966 Orioles). In 152 games, Betts turned in a .307/.408/.579 slash line with a .987 OPS, a 163 OPS+, an 8.3 bWAR (led position players), and a career-high 39 home runs. These numbers included elite strikeout (15.4%) and walk (13.9%) rates. Betts did most of his damage in the second half which included a scorching hot August when he had a .455 batting average with a 264 wRC+ (!), 1.355 OPS, .516 OBP, and 11 home runs in 28 games. Check out Betts' baseball-savant batting numbers for 2023 (remember, red is good):
Betts put up those offensive numbers all while being a defensive Swiss army knife starting 77 games in right field, 62 at second base, and 12 at shortstop. In terms of WAR, 2024 was the second-best season of Betts' career, following his 2018 MVP campaign.
The addition of Ohtani into the Dodgers lineup this season means Betts will have two former MVPs hitting directly behind him, forming a murderers' row top three and a nightmare for pitchers. In December, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced that Mookie Betts would be the team's everyday second baseman in 2024. The full-time move to second will be a lot easier on Betts' body, as right field and shortstop can cause a lot of wear and tear on a player. With less stress on defense, Betts should have more time to focus on making necessary swing or approach adjustments throughout the season. The Dodgers are must-see TV in 2024 and Mookie Betts is in a great spot to win another MVP and join Frank Robinson in elite company.
Oneil Cruz
Oneil Cruz is one of the main reasons I labeled the Pirates as a "league pass" team in my power rankings post last week (an under-the-radar team that I find intriguing/exciting and will watch a ton of this year). The 25-year-old shortstop is in his third year in the bigs but is yet to play a full season. He played a mere 2 games in 2021, 87 games in 2022, and only 9 in 2023 after breaking his leg sliding into home plate in April.
Cruz, 6'7" 215 pounds, is a specimen on the diamond. He hits the ball hard - 46.1% hard-hit rate with a 91.9 mph average exit velocity in 2022 - and finds the sweet spot as he had a 15.5% barrel percentage in 2022 which ranked in the ninety-sixth percentile. This led to a 17-home run season in 87 games and 361 plate appearances. Do some quick math and that's a 30+ homer season across a full 162-game season. He also has wheels, ranking in the ninety-eighth percentile in sprint speed in 2022, which translated to 10 stolen bases.
Being a 6'7" baseball player has its downsides, one of which is a larger strike zone. Cruz felt that pain in 2022 as he struck out an abysmal 34% of the time while only walking in 7.8% of his at-bats. His plate discipline was also poor as he had a 30.5% chase rate and a 35.4% whiff rate. Despite a strong arm that averages 93.9 mph across the diamond, Cruz also struggles defensively, finishing with -9 outs above average in 2022.
I'm excited to see how Cruz plays in his first full MLB season. The talent is so clearly there, he just needs to hone it all in. As he gets more reps against big league pitching, the strikeouts should come down, and a more trained eye should help the walk rates. The new rules implemented last season will help Cruz steal more bags. He's set 30-30 as a goal for himself in 2024. A 30 homer-3o stolen base season has not been accomplished in Pittsburgh since Barry Bonds in 1992, a season in which he won one of his record seven (!) MVP awards. It's a lofty goal, but one that Cruz has the talent to achieve. I'll be tuned in as often as I can watching him work towards that goal.
Juan Soto
Showing my Yankee bias a bit here but man it will be exciting watching Juan Soto, one of the best hitters in baseball, in pinstripes this year. The twenty-five-year-old was traded to the Yankees in December and just looks like he was meant to play in a Yankee uniform.
Playing right field and hitting second in the lineup in front of Aaron Judge, Soto will provide much-needed on-base skills and availability for the Yankees. He's led the league in walks three times (2021, '22, and '23) and in OBP ('21 and '22) twice, categories the Yankees have struggled in over the past few seasons. Soto also stays on the field, playing 150+ games in every season - excluding the COVID-shortened season - since 2019. His availability will be massive for the Yankees as key players Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are known to miss time with various injuries.
We could also see a power surge for Soto in 2024. He's not necessarily known for his power, averaging 29 homers a season (excluding 2020) in his career, but his lefty bat should play well with the short right-field porch in Yankee Stadium. Soto will get pitches to hit as pitchers will be forced to throw to him with Aaron Judge looming on deck. A 40+ home run season is a real possibility for Soto in 2024, I mean, just look at these Baseball Savant numbers from last season. He's the elite of the elite in MLB. Add in the fact that he's a Scott Boras client playing for a contract and, man, he's going to be so much fun to watch this season.
Grayson Rodriguez
There's arguably no pitcher more important to his team's aspirations this season than Grayson Rodriguez. By trading for Corbin Burnes in February, the Orioles solidified their status as World Series contenders. However, it's Rodriguez, not Burnes that will determine the O's fate in 2024.
Ranked as the number seven overall prospect heading into 2023 on MLB.com, the expectations were high for Rodriguez in his rookie season. The 6'5" righty's first year in the big leagues was a bit of a mixed bag. April and May were a nightmare as Rodriguez pitched to a 7.35 ERA in 10 starts (45.1 IP) with 13 home runs allowed, a .307 opponent batting average, and 56 strikeouts to 21 walks. He was subsequently sent down to Triple-A Norfolk to regain his confidence.
After seven starts in the minor leagues, Rodriguez was called back up to the big league club in July and was an entirely different pitcher. In his 13 starts (76.2 IP) from July to the end of the season, Rodriguez had a 2.58 ERA with only 3 home runs allowed, a .227 opponent batting average, and 73 strikeouts to 21 walks.
What changed? Aside from a few small mechanical adjustments, Rodriguez relied more on his above-average fastball (97.4 mph average velo), changeup, and curveball instead of his mediocre cutter (opponents hit .316 with a 61.1% hard-hit rate against his cutter in 2023). Rodriguez's PutAway percentages (the rate of two-strike pitches that result in a strikeout) on his curveball (25.5%), slider (21%), changeup (18.2%), and 4-seam fastball (16.8%) were all markedly better than the cutter (5.6%). He also improved his command, which helped him locate his changeup down in the zone and finish the season with a 46.9% ground ball rate. A disappointing start in Game 2 of the ALDS against Texas (5 ER in 1.2 IP) marred a great second half, but Rodriguez certainly displayed his high upside in those 13 starts following his stint in Triple-A.
If the Orioles are going to win the World Series this year, Grayson Rodriguez has to solidify himself as an All-Star caliber pitcher. With starters Kyle Bradish and John Means sidelined with elbow injuries (and closer Félix Bautista as well for that matter), there is added pressure on Rodriguez to perform to his second-half 2023 standards for the entire 2024 season. The Texas native was in the lab this winter working on developing a two-seam fastball, which could signal the end for his cutter and pose another challenge for hitters. With the cutter out of the mix and a full season of a more confident Rodriguez, I think the second-year pitcher can become one of the better groundball pitchers in MLB and finish with a ground ball rate somewhere between 50 and 55%. I'm excited to watch Rodriguez continue to develop at the big-league level in 2024 and think that a full season without a cutter in his arsenal could pay dividends for him and Baltimore's title hopes.
Torkelson is set to begin his third full MLB season. (Conor P. Fitzgerald/Shutterstock)
Spencer Torkelson
Torkleson, the number one overall pick in the 2020 draft, struggled mightily in his first season in the big leagues in 2022. In 110 games, he hit .203/.285/.319 with a .604 OPS, 8 home runs, 37 walks to 99 strikeouts, and a -1.0 fWAR. In July, the Tigers sent the then 22-year-old down to Triple-A Toledo in hopes that he would regain the form that had him ranked as the top prospect in baseball. Tork was eventually called back up to the big leagues in September but still couldn't find his groove at the plate. Tigers fans were worried that another number-one overall pick would not work out in Detroit.
Torkelson dispelled that notion in 2023 by playing in a team-leading 159 games and hitting 31 home runs (the most for a Tiger since Miggy's 38 in 2016), 34 doubles, and finishing with a 1.4 fWAR. His full-year numbers were hampered by a slow start, but Torkelson broke out in the second half with a .816 OPS, 19 home runs (16 in August and September!), and a 121 wRC+. For the full season, he ranked in the 94th percentile in hard-hit percentage (50.9), the 89th percentile in barrel percentage (14.1), and the 87th percentile in average exit velocity (91.8). The strikeout percentage (25%) was not great, but the power makes up for the K's. Full 2023 Baseball Savant numbers here:
There is still plenty of room for Torkelson to improve in 2024. His paltry .223 batting average, .313 on-base percentage, and -11 defensive runs saved at first base are great places to start. Despite some struggles in his break out 2023 season, it's important to remember that the now 24-year-old hasn't even played 300 games in the big leagues yet. As he continues to make adjustments at the plate, refine his fielding, and simply play more games, Torkelson will become a star in Detroit and could have their first 40 home run season since Miguel Cabrera's 2013 MVP campaign (44).
Hunter Greene
It feels like we will know the fate of Hunter Greene's MLB career after this season. The number two overall pick in the 2017 draft has not lived up to the hype in his first two big league seasons. In 46 starts and 237.2 IP across 2022 and 2023, Greene has a 4.62 ERA, with 3.9 BB/9 and a 3.5 fWAR. In 2023, he ranked in the sixteenth percentile in hard-hit percentage (44.1), the twentieth percentile in average exit velocity (90.1 mph), and the twenty-ninth percentile in barrel percentage (9.0).
The scouting report on Greene is quite simple. He's a three-pitch pitcher - using his 4-seam fastball 54% of the time, a slider 40% of the time, and a changeup 5% of the time - that relies heavily on his elite 98.3 average fastball velocity. Using essentially two pitches makes Greene rather predictable to opponents, resulting in a league-average 29.4% chase rate as hitters are sitting on a fastball and adjusting to the slider. The fastball lacks movement but still manages to be a great pitch that has helped Greene reach an elite 12.0 K/9 mark across his career. Control is a major issue, however, as seen in the high walk rates - 9.0% in 2022 and 9.6% in 2023.
Reds fans have high expectations for their team this year and are relying on Greene to develop into their ace. Greene's fastball is one of the best in the game, but the rest of his arsenal leaves a lot to be desired. I'm fascinated to see if Greene has improved his changeup and plans to deploy it more in 2024, or if he has developed another pitch to add to his mix. I don't think he will fulfill his potential just relying on his fastball that doesn't move much. Velocity is great but hitters are becoming much more accustomed to hitting against elite velocity on a day-to-day basis. A quality pitch mix is more important to success for a starter in 2024 than a really fast fastball. If Greene develops another pitch and hones in his control, he has a Cy Young ceiling. If it's more of the same in 2024, we could see Greene transition into the bullpen as an impact reliever.
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