Checking in on all 30 teams ahead of the 2024 season
WILLIAM LOCKE
1. Atlanta Braves
This Braves core is too good to only win one World Series. Righty Spencer Strider, the favorite to win the NL Cy Young, is coming off a league-leading 281 strikeout (!) season. Lefty Max Fried, a free agent following the season, battled injury in 2023 but will look to get back to his 2022 form where he finished second in NL Cy Young voting. Offseason acquisition lefty Chris Sale should add some needed rotation depth. They have a quality bullpen again that will feature Raisel Iglesias and A.J. Minter closing games out. The lineup is the deepest in baseball with zero landing spots for pitchers. Reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. is the best all-around hitter in the sport, Austin Riley is an MVP caliber third baseman, Matt Olson led the league in home runs last year (54), Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna will hit 25+ homers and Michael Harris will steal 25+ bags. Jarred Kelenic was a nice pickup via trade with Seattle this winter; I predict that the former top prospect will finally have his breakout season in Atlanta in 2024. Oh and did I mention that they play elite defense? A lot needs to go right for a team to win the World Series, but the Braves are arguably the best-equipped team to do so in 2024.
2. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are being overlooked heading into this season because they had a quieter offseason than other NL foes such as the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. People forget, however, that they played in the 2022 World Series and were within a game of reaching the Series again in 2023. Their key offseason move was re-signing Aaron Nola to a seven-year, $172 million deal. Zack Wheeler and Nola form arguably the best top two of any rotation in baseball. Playoff hero Ranger Suárez is a legit third arm, while Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez round out a great rotation. I'll put the lineup up there with any in the league. Shortstop Trea Turner and now full-time first baseman Bryce Harper are perennial MVP candidates. Kyle Schwarber is a unique leadoff hitter who will hit 40+ home runs with a solid OBP. Third baseman Alec Bohm (27) continues to get better every year. J.T. Realmuto is one of the best catchers in MLB and probably the best in the National League. Johan Rojas will take over in center field and offer elite defense. Whit Merrifield was a sneaky important late offseason signing that will provide the type of positional versatility that all contenders need. Returning all of their key pieces and motivated by their recent playoff scars, the Phillies are as good a bet as any to win the 2024 World Series
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers, by far, have the most pressure on them to win the World Series this year. After signing not only the best overall player in Shohei Ohtani but also the best pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in free agency this winter, the expectations for the Dodgers are World Series or bust for the foreseeable future. The Dodgers also traded with the Rays for the oft-injured ace righty Tyler Glasnow to bolster a banged-up rotation. They signed power bat Teoscar Hernández, re-signed Clayton Kershaw, and added lefty James Paxton for the back end of the rotation. The reason I have the Dodgers third is because of concerns with the rotation and lineup depth. With Ohtani (pitcher version), Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Kershaw, and Dustin May all injured to start the season, the Dodgers are thin behind Yamamoto and Glasnow. Young righties Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan are going to have to step up in the first half of the season. The Betts-Freeman-Ohtani top three is the best in the league, but I question if Max Muncy, James Outman, Hernández, Jason Heyward, and Gavin Lux will be able to carry the rest of the lineup. The Dodgers are the World Series favorites for a reason, but I think Atlanta and Philadelphia are more complete at the moment.
4. Texas Rangers
The defending World Series champions are not in their final form heading into the 2024 season. Star pitchers Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are coming off of surgeries and won't return until the middle of the season. Righty free agent signing Tyler Mahle is also recovering from surgery and expects to be back around the All-Star break. Lefty Jordan Montgomery, who played a key role in their championship run last fall, is still a free agent. The rotation will be led by veterans Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, and Andrew Heaney to begin the season. A solid rotation, but not as good as Seattle or Houston. If Montgomery re-signs and deGrom and Scherzer come back firing, it's the best rotation in baseball and it's not particularly close. Texas' quiet offseason was largely due to their RSN uncertainty. They did, however, add David Roberston and Kirby Yates to the bullpen, two great signings. The lineup is as good as any in MLB. Shortstop Corey Seager, second baseman Marcius Semien, and right fielder Adolis GarcÃa are all MVP-caliber players. Outfielder Evan Carter and third baseman Josh Jung will continue to improve in the early stages of their careers. 2023 first-round pick Wyatt Langford could make the team out of camp and be an upgrade from free agent losses Robbie Grossman and Mitch Garver. The Rangers will be in the thick of the AL West race again this year and could be back in the Fall Classic if deGrom and Scherzer can look like themselves when they return from injury this summer.
5. Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles won 101 games last year and added one of the best pitchers in baseball this offseason in Corbin Burnes. It's safe to say that expectations haven't been this high in Baltimore since... the 1980s? The O's are spoiled with an absurd amount of young talent and the crown jewel of them all, the unanimous number one prospect in baseball Jackson Holliday, has yet to debut in the Major Leagues. I expect Holliday to win the second base job in Spring Training and be the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year. Holliday will join 2023 AL Rookie of the Year, shortstop Gunnar Henderson, in an infield that will also feature 25-year-old third baseman Jordan Westburg and 30-year-old first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. Already the best catcher in baseball through two seasons in the bigs, Adley Rutschman (26) will be the anchor of this Orioles offense. The outfield will consist of Cedric Mullins in center, Anthony Santander in right, and Austin Hays in left - the same group that won them the AL East in 2023. If any of those guys struggle, top 100 prospects Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad are more than ready to step in as replacements.
The rotation took a hit when Kyle Bradish sprained his elbow at the beginning of camp but still has a Cy Young candidate in Burnes and former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez in his second season. Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, and Cole Irvin will fill out the rotation as Bradish and lefty John Means nurse injuries. The bullpen will sorely miss Félix Bautista closing out games as he will miss the entire season recovering from Tommy John surgery. Free agent signing Craig Kimbrel will have closing duties which worries me a bit. Outside of the pen and the back half of the rotation, the only real concern for the O's this year is their youth. Some players might struggle as the league adapts to them, but the farm system is so strong that the Orioles can make another blockbuster trade or two if they want to push for a World Series in 2024. Even if they don't win it all this season, Baltimore is going to be really good for a really long time.
6. New York Yankees
Everything that could have gone wrong for the Yankees in 2023 did. They followed up a disappointing season by trading for superstar Juan Soto early in the offseason, who will play right field and hit second in the lineup. Soto will be extra motivated this season as he is a free agent next winter, so look for him to have a monster year. The Yankees continued beefing up their outfield when they traded with Boston for left fielder Alex Verdugo, who should help the team's OBP. The star man Aaron Judge only played 106 games in 2023 as he battled a toe injury that he says he will have to manage for his entire career. Judge will have to stay healthy if the Yankees want to contend in the AL East. Shortstop Anthony Volpe is a player to watch as he will look to follow up a 21 HR/24 SB rookie campaign. DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton all need to prove that they still have good baseball left in them. GM Brian Cashman added righty Marcus Stroman to the rotation in free agency on a two-year deal. He will pitch behind 2023 AL Cy Young Gerrit Cole and lefty Carlos Rodón, who needs a bounce-back season, in the rotation. Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes finish out a strong starting five. Righty Clay Holmes will anchor a solid pen, which added Caleb Ferguson and Victor González via trade this winter. There are still questions surrounding the Yankees this year, but they should be much better than the 82 games they won in 2023.
7. Houston Astros
Pundits are ranking the Astros as the best team in the American League because they are the Astros. In reality, the 2017 and 2022 World Series champions are in decline. They won 90 games last year, their lowest full-season win total since 2016. They are relying on 41-year-old Justin Verlander to be their ace and workhorse. Number two starter Framber Valdez capitulated down the stretch and in the playoffs last year. Cristian Javier regressed from his dazzling 2022, pitching to a 4.56 ERA in 162 innings. Righty Luis Garcia won't be back until midseason as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. MartÃn Maldonado, one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, left in free agency and will be replaced by Yainer Diaz. Hall of Fame manager Dusty Baker retired. Bench coach Joe Espada will take over managerial duties. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman in the heart of the lineup isn't as scary as it was two years ago. First baseman José Abreu will hit cleanup, he had a -0.6 fWAR in 2023. The farm system is one of the worst in baseball and has zero top 100 prospects.
With all that said, the Astros are still one of the best teams in the American League. DH Yordan Alvarez strikes fear in pitchers' hearts the way few other hitters do. Kyle Tucker is a 30-30 candidate and should land a hefty contract extension soon. Jose Altuve, while aging, is still a first-ballot Hall of Famer. They added Josh Hader (5-years $95 million) to a bullpen that already had Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu in its back end. The Astros are deep at the big league level. Players like outfielder Chas McCormick, shortstop Jeremy Peña, and righty José Urquidy have shown that they can step up when called upon. You have to give the Astros the benefit of the doubt because of their experience and depth, but at some point, the magical run is going to come to an end.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
The defending NL champions did not make any blockbuster moves this offseason but addressed the glaring weaknesses that the Rangers exposed in the World Series. Their big free agent acquisition was lefty starter Eduardo Rodriguez for four years $80 million. Rodriguez provides much-needed depth for a rotation that struggled beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly last season. Youngsters Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson will be the number four and five starters in what can now be described as a solid rotation. Free agent signing third baseman Eugenio Suárez and DH Joc Pederson, acquired via trade with San Francisco, add 20+ home run power to a lineup that finished 22nd in home runs in 2023. Left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was brought back on a team-friendly three-year $42 million deal. Center fielder Corbin Carroll is quickly becoming a star and will look to build upon his Rookie of the Year campaign. Number 4 overall prospect according to Keith Law, Jordan Lawlar, debuted in Wrigley last year (I was there) and will look to win the shortstop job in camp this March. Catching the Dodgers in the division will be challenging, but with both the rotation and lineup deepened, Arizona is ready to contend for another playoff birth.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
Remember when we all thought Ohtani was signing with the Blue Jays when someone tracked his private jet flying to Toronto? Turns out, neither Ohtani nor any major free agents were flying to Toronto this offseason. The Blue Jays' acquisitions this offseason were righty Yariel Rodriguez, who hasn't pitched a game in MLB, 39-year-old infielder Justin Turner, and utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa. None of the moves moved the needle for Blue Jays fans. The front office is still in talks with third baseman Matt Chapman but it's looking like he will be making the move back stateside. There's no other way to put it than Toronto had an extremely disappointing offseason.
On the bright side for Blue Jays fans, there is still a ton of talent on this roster. Kevin Gausman is a Cy Young-caliber pitcher who can lead the league in strikeouts, first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can win an MVP award, and shortstop Bo Bichette is looking for his second straight All-Star season. Righty José BerrÃos improved in 2023 and has the stuff to become a reliable number two. Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, and Alek Manoah round out a solid rotation. Manoah had a nightmare 2023 season but showed ace upside in 2022. If he can regain his 2022 form, this Blue Jays rotation is scary. They have top 100 prospect lefty Ricky Tiedemann (21) in camp who could also help the rotation this year. The bullpen loses Jordan Hicks but still has Jordan Romano as the closer and Erik Swanson as the setup man. Yimi GarcÃa, Tim Mayza, and Trevor Richards are solid options in middle relief. The lineup struggled in 2023, finishing 16th in home runs, but should bounce back this year. There is too much talent there for it not to. A disappointing offseason is serving as a giant raincloud over the Blue Jays right now, but I expect this team to compete for an AL East title and maybe, just maybe, finally win their first playoff game in eight years.
10. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs were catching a lot of flack for what had been a quiet offseason in terms of player acquisitions. They broke their silence in the wee hours of Sunday morning by re-signing center fielder Cody Bellinger to a three-year $80 million deal with opt-outs after the first two seasons. The Cubs were ultimately bidding against themselves and got Bellinger at a team-friendly price, but he will likely opt out of the deal if he has another good year in 2024. Either way, the deal does wonders for a Cubs lineup that needed a power bat.
The Cubs begin their offseason with a bang by firing manager David Ross and replacing him with Craig Counsell. The North Siders followed that shock move by spending $62 million in free agency, signing lefty starter Shota Imanaga and righty reliever Héctor Neris. They also traded a couple of prospects to the Dodgers for first baseman Michael Busch and reliever Yency Almonte. While not earth-shattering moves, all four players fill vacant positions and help build out Chicago's depth in 2024. They also have a loaded farm system that should help improve their depth. Keith Law has the Cubs at 5 top 100 prospects in their Minor League system. Pete Crow-Armstrong (21), Matt Shaw (22), Cade Horton (22), Kevin Alcántara (21), and Michael Busch (26) all could play varying roles for the big league club in 2024.
With Bellinger back in the fold, the lineup and rotations are largely unchanged. Shortstop Dansby Swanson, 30, will be in year two of his seven-year $177 million deal. Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, and Bellinger will be roaming the outfield while Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch, and Nick Madrigal will join Swanson in the infield. Justin Steele is the Opening Day starter, with Jameson Taillon, Kyle Hendricks, Jordan Wicks, and Shota Imanaga behind him. It's not a playoff-caliber rotation at the moment, but if Cade Horton continues developing at the rate that he is, reinforcements could be on the way soon. The bullpen was strengthened with the signing of Héctor Neris, who will join closer Adbert Alzolay. Look for righty Javier Assad to have a breakout season in long relief or as a potential fifth starter. The Cubs aren't great, but neither is the NL Central. If they can get good campaigns from the back half of their rotation, Chicago should win their first full-season division crown since 2017.
11. Seattle Mariners
It feels like the media is generally down on the Mariners this year despite them winning 88 games and missing the playoffs on the final weekend of the season in 2023. They followed up the heartbreak of just missing the playoffs by having a stealthy good offseason. The M's traded for second baseman Jorge Polanco, utilityman Luke Raley, and outfielder Mitch Haniger, bats that add much-needed depth to their lineup. They also added bullpen depth by trading for righties Gregory Santos, Jackson Kowar, and Austin Voth. That trio will join a loaded bullpen that is headlined by closer Andrés Muñoz and setup man Matt Brash. Seattle's starting rotation of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo can compete with any starting five in the league. It's a young rotation with an average age of 26.7, but they've all proven they are above-average MLB arms. 23-year-old outfielder and perennial MVP candidate Julio RodrÃguez is the franchise in Seattle. His scorching hot finish to the 2023 season was a large reason Seattle was in playoff contention in the first place. RodrÃguez will look to replicate that second-half form for the entire 162 in 2024. The Mariners go as J-Rod goes and if he can play up to his billing, Seattle will be in the AL Wild Card mix and could maybe even contend for the AL West.
12. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays did this offseason what the Rays always do, trade away their best players. This time it was ace Tyler Glasnow, who was dealt to the Dodgers with Manuel Margot for righty, fellow Butler Bulldog, Ryan Pepiot, and outfielder Jonny DeLuca. We should know by now that Tampa will work its voodoo magic and develop Pepiot into their next ace while increasing his spin rates tenfold. Pepiot will join righties Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, Zack Littell, and Taj Bradley in the rotation. I am high on former top prospect Taj Bradley, 22, and think he could have a breakout season. Star pitcher Shane McClanahan will miss the entire season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, while lefty Jeffrey Springs and righty Drew Rasmussen should be back in July or August as they recover from elbow surgeries as well. The lineup will be without shortstop Wander Franco for the foreseeable future as he deals with legal issues. The Rays bats should still be competitive without Franco, however, as they will feature top 5 MLB prospect Junior Caminero and perennial All-Star Randy Arozarena. It will be an uphill battle for Tampa to reach the 99 wins that they amassed in 2023, but I've learned to never count out the Rays organization.
13. Minnesota Twins
The 2023 AL Central champs were quiet this offseason, a large part of that due to their unclear RSN situation. They lost starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda as well as reliever Emilio Pagán in free agency but will replace them with Chris Paddack (injured in 2023), Anthony DeSclafani (acquired trade with Mariners), and Justin Topa (Mariners trade). Pablo López was electric in his first season in Minnesota, pitching to a 3.66 ERA in a career-high 194 innings pitched, which landed him seventh in AL Cy Young voting. López is turning into an ace and has the 27-year-old Joe Ryan developing as a solid number two next to him. The bullpen is another strength for the Twins, featuring elite closer Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax as the setup man, and Brock Stewart, Caleb Thielbar, Steven Okert, and Topa as middle innings relievers. The infield has the potential to be one of the best in all of baseball despite trading Jorge Polanco to Seattle. Carlos Correa will man shortstop in his tenth MLB season, 24-year-old Edouard Julien will play second, star in the making Royce Lewis will play third, and veteran Carlos Santana will play first. Top 100 prospect infielder Brooks Lee is waiting in the wings and should get called up this season. Byron Buxton will make the move back to center field, ditching the DH role that he played in 2023. If Buxton can stay healthy and the young bats continue to develop, the Twins should win the division for the second straight season.
14. Cincinnati Reds
I've seen a lot of analysts picking Cincinnati to win the NL Central this season. I love the Reds' young talent as much as anybody, but I think we need to pump the brakes a bit. The Reds ranked 28th in starter ERA in 2023 (5.43) and will still be relying on Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft to lead the rotation. Both are in their mid-twenties and have time to prove themselves, but I want to see it from them before I pick the Reds as division champs. To their credit, the front office was active this winter and signed Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez to bolster the rotation and offer some much-needed veteran leadership. Andrew Abbott, 24, projects to be the fifth starter and is looking to build on a solid 2023 rookie campaign (3.87 ERA in 109.1 IP). The bullpen features the underrated Alexis DÃaz as closer, as well as Lucas Sims and Ian Gibaut. I'd love to see the front office bring in another reliever at the trade deadline the team is in contention.
Shortstop Elly De La Cruz had as much hype as any player in MLB last season but he faded hard after a hot in the majors, striking out in an anemic 33.7% of his at-bats. De La Cruz has all the talent in the world, but he simply has to cut down on the strikeouts if he wants to become the star Reds fans expect him to be. Matt McLain, Noelvi Marte, Jonathan India, and free agent signing Jeimer Candelario will join De La Cruz in a solid but mostly young infield. 24-year-old Christian Encarnacion-Strand should see time at first and third base as well as DH. Tyler Stephenson and Luke Maile will be the platoon behind the dish and I hope Maile gets the majority of the time there because Stephenson was one of the worst defensive catchers in baseball last year. TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, and Will Benson man an outfield with an average age of 26.8. If all goes according to plan, the Reds can contend for a division title in 2024. I am hesitant to make that pick because of the youth, starting pitching, and regression candidates.
15. San Diego Padres
The Padres changed their approach this offseason and focused on cutting payroll. After failing to extend Juan Soto, San Diego traded him to the Yankees for pitchers Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Drew Thorpe (as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka). They lost pitchers Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Michael Wacha, Nick Martinez, Rich Hill, Drew Pomeranz, and Luis GarcÃa in free agency. Relievers Yuki Matsui, Woo-Suk Go, and Wandy Peralta were signed to help a pretty weak bullpen. The rotation is extremely thin and will rely on Joe Musgrove as its number-one starter. Musgrove has had stretches where he's looked like a top 10 pitcher in the sport, but he's never put it together for an entire season. Yu Darvish, 37, is the number two guy and is coming off a 4.56 ERA in 2023. If Michael King doesn't work out as a starter, the Padres' rotation could bottom 5-8 in the league. The lineup is still star-studded with Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, and Ha-Seong Kim at the top but with one of the better farm systems in baseball (five top 100 prospects according to Keith Law), we could see San Diego move on from their current stars in favor of the next generation. Don't look at the bottom half of the lineup. It's not pretty. The star power alone boosted the Padres this high in my power rankings, but their intrigue in 2024 will come in trade talks, not on the field.
16. St. Louis Cardinals
I have a soft spot for the Cardinals because I grew up in Memphis where their Triple-A team plays and know for a fact they are one of the best-run organizations in baseball. That being said, I am not a fan of what the Cardinals did this offseason. Coming off a 91-loss season, the glaring weakness in St. Louis was the starting rotation. Instead of bidding for top free agent arms like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery, the Cardinals went bargain-binning and signed aging starters Sonny Gray (34), Kyle Gibson (36), and Lance Lynn (36). Lance Lynn allowed a league-leading 44 home runs last season! Gray, Gibson, and Lynn will join Miles Mikolas (35) and Steven Matz (32) in a rotation that will still be the weak point for the Cardinals this season. The bullpen lost Jordan Hicks and replaced him with Keynan Middleton (yikes), but still has Ryan Helsley and Giovanny Gallegos, two of the more underrated relievers in the sport.
The lineup should bounce back from a surprisingly dismal 2023. It is led by 36-year-old Paul Goldschmidt and 32-year-old Nolan Arenado, two players that any contender would love to have in the heart of their lineup. Shortstop and top 100 prospect Masyn Winn has a high floor thanks to his elite speed and solid defense - I have him as one of my players to watch in 2024. Outfielder Jordan Walker is another fun young player and could hit 30+ homers. Catcher Willson Contreras should feel more comfortable in his second season in St. Louis. Matt Carpenter was brought back into the fold this winter and will play a bench role. The Cardinals are viewed as a co-favorite alongside Chicago to win the NL Central, but I have a hard time getting there because of their weak rotation.
17. New York Mets
A team that many experts were picking as their World Series champion heading into the 2023 season, the Mets committed to a "soft rebuild" last summer when they traded Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline. Steve Cohen and Co. will use 2024 as a transition season - evaluating what they have in-house before spending big again next winter in what is shaping up to be a loaded free-agent class. Perhaps the biggest question in Queens this year is the future of first baseman Pete Alonso who is a free agent after this season. Will the slugger be traded at the deadline or will the Mets sign him to an extension?
Under new President of Baseball Operations Dave Stearns, the Mets took a much more conservative approach to this offseason, signing a slew of veterans to one or two-year deals. They hired Carlos Mendoza, the Yankees bench coach, to be their new manager which feels like a total "front office will control every move the manager makes" hire. The starting rotation is nearly unrecognizable compared to last season but is led by Kodai Senga, a pitcher that I think has ace upside. Senga, unfortunately, will begin the season on the IL with a shoulder shoulder injury. Free agent signings Luis Severino, and Sean Manaea will slot in behind Senga when he returns, alongside José Quintana and Adrian Houser in what projects to be a bottom-half rotation. The bullpen will welcome Edwin DÃaz and his trumpet intro back after missing the entire 2023 season; the Mets sorely missed DÃaz in 2023 as they finished 22nd in bullpen ERA. The lineup finished 20th in runs scored in 2023 and was not improved upon over the offseason. Center fielder Harrison Bader and infielder Joey Wendle were both signed to one-year deals and will play limited roles. The Mets will be relying heavily on youngsters Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty as well as bounceback seasons from Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte. Simply put, neither the rotation nor the lineup strikes fear in opponents' hearts. Expect another season of Frank the Tank meltdowns for the Mets in 2024.
18. San Francisco Giants
It became abundantly clear this winter that San Francisco is not viewed as a desirable destination for players anymore. The Giants failed to acquire top free agents Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa last offseason and struck out again this winter when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers. To not only miss out on the most-coveted free agent maybe ever but to also have him playing for your biggest rival for the next ten years is a brutal blow for Giants fans.
The Giants licked their wounds and were still active this offseason. They signed center fielder Jung Hoo Lee from the KBO for 6 years $113 million, DH Jorge Soler for 3 years $42 million, righty Jordan Hicks for 4 years $44 million, and traded with the Mariners to acquire Robbie Ray, who aims to return from his Tommy John surgery rehab sometime after the All-Star break. I like these moves in a vacuum but still think the Giants need more talent to compete with the NL West heavyweights in Los Angeles and Arizona. Thairo Estrada, LaMonte Wade Jr., Michael Conforto, Wilmer Flores, Mike Yaztrzemski, Patrick Bailey, and Marco Luciano are all above-average players but still have holes and aren't good enough to win you a division. Logan Webb, second in NL Cy Young voting in 2023, leads the rotation and will be the Giants' best player yet again. Top prospect lefty Kyle Harrison will carry a heavy load in the rotation before Ray returns in the summer. Jordan Hicks is moving from the bullpen into a starting role. Alex Cobb, the Giants' second-best pitcher, is expected to miss the first half of the season as he recovers from offseason hip surgery. For a team that finished dead last in innings pitched from their starters last season, having two high-quality starters injured to start the season and relying on a converted closer to eat innings is not exactly where you want to be. I'll feel a bit differently about the Giants if they can land Matt Chapman in free agency, but as things stand it projects to be an uphill battle for San Francisco in 2024.
19. Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee marked the beginning of a new era when they traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles on February 1. With Burnes gone, the rotation looks a lot weaker with Freddy Peralta as the number one followed by Wade Miley, Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, and DL Hall. That group will not finish 6th in starting rotation ERA as the 2023 unit did. The bullpen is still strong with Devin Williams, and his Airbender, as the closer and Joel Payamps as the setup man. Williams, however, is already a name being floated in trade talks as he has one more year of arbitration before he becomes a free agent.
The lineup is weak again but should feature top 5 MLB prospect outfielder Jackson Chourio. Youngsters Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell will join Chourio in the outfield. Shortstop Willy Adames is another player expected to be moved before the trade deadline. Second baseman Brice Turang, who I was impressed by when I saw him play in Wrigley last season, plays Gold Glove-level defense and could replace Adames at short. Joey Ortiz, acquired in the Corbin Burnes trade, will bring quality defense to third base. Rhys Hoskins signed with Milwaukee in January and will be playing for the first time since the 2022 World Series after missing all of the 2023 season with a torn ACL. Christian Yelich continues to have one of the worst contracts in the sport. It's not a bad lineup, but it doesn't scare you. New manager Pat Murphy will have big shoes to fill after Craig Counsell's shock departure to Wrigley. The future is bright - Milwaukee has a league-leading six top 1oo prospects on Keith Law's list - but the Brewers will take a step back in 2024.
20. Boston Red Sox
The biggest move the last place Red Sox made this winter was... adding former GM Theo Epstein to their ownership group? The Red Sox will have a bottom-half rotation in 2024 as Lucas Giolito, who signed for $38.5 million over two years this offseason, will be their Opening Day starter. Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Tanner Houck complete a rotation that will have to face a loaded AL East. I like Boston's bats more than the teams below them on this list which is why I have them at 20. Rafael Devers is one of the best hitters in the game. 24-year-old Triston Casas is going to solidify himself as the first baseman of the future. I wasn't a fan of the Trevor Story signing but expect him to improve if he can stay healthy this season. Bringing in Tyler O'Neill to play left field and ditching Alex Verdugo in the process was a questionable move. O'Neill can't stay healthy and has character concerns. I'm excited to see Vaughn Grissom, acquired via trade with Atlanta, get a starting chance at second base. The farm system is loaded with five top 100 prospects according to Keith Law that all have major unquantifiable early 2000s Red Sox vibes. It's going to be another middling season in Boston. Maybe once FSG sells Mohamed Salah to the Saudi League for a fortune this summer they will reinvest some of that money in the Red Sox?
21. Detroit Tigers
Jeff Greenberg is in his second season as GM in Detroit and he has Tigers fans cautiously optimistic. There's a clear youth movement happening, led by Spencer Torkelson and Riley Green. Torkelson, a former number-one overall pick, hit 31 home runs last season while Greene played to a 2.3 fWAR in only 99 games. Parker Meadows, 24, brings plus defense and speed to center field. Greenberg gave Colt Keith the stamp of approval when he handed him a 6-year contract extension this winter before playing a single game in the big leagues. Starting pitchers Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda added much-needed rotation depth when they signed with Detroit in free agency. Lefty Tarik Skubal is the headliner in the rotation and will arguably make or break the Tigers' season. Alex Lange, 120 ERA+ in 2023, will lead a solid bullpen that added Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller over the offseason. Javier Baez's contract ($98 million over the next four years) is this rebuild's only glaring weakness. Detroit should be fun to watch this season and could contend in a wide-open AL Central.
22. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians are the American League's Marlins (more on them later). Solid rotation. No idea how they're going to score runs. A Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen, and Gavin Williams starting rotation is playoff caliber. Emmanuel Clase, arguably the best closer in baseball, Scott Barlow, and Trevor Stephan headline a quality bullpen. However, GM Mike Chernoff has done nothing this offseason to improve an offense that finished dead last in home runs last season (by 27!). Perennial MVP candidate José RamÃrez will be in his twelfth season in Cleveland with zero protection around him in the lineup. Steven Kwan will look to get back to his 2022 rookie season form. Josh Naylor needs to stay healthy and play to his 25-30 home run potential. Top prospects Kyle Manzardo, 1B, and Brayan Rocchio, SS, are going to be fighting for starting positions in Spring Training. Rookie manager Stephen Vogt will have the impossible task of replacing legend Terry Francona as manager. If a pitcher or two gets hurt and J-Ram has a down year, the Guardians could be looking at 85+ losses again.
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
I'm going to spend a lot of time watching the Pirates this season as, for the first time in forever, I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Oneil Cruz, the 25-year-old shortstop with superstar potential, is back for his first full MLB season after breaking his leg last April. Ke'Bryan Hayes is already one of the best defensive third basemen in the league and hit the ball well in the second half last season. Former number one overall pick Henry Davis will look to establish himself in his first full season. Outfielder Jack Suwinski is going to put his name on the map in 2024. Bryan Reynolds continues to be a "true professional" in left field. David Bednar, one of the best relievers in all of baseball, will handle the ninth while free agent signing Aroldis Chapman will handle the eighth. Mitch Keller, MartÃn Pérez, and Marco Gonzales lead a weak rotation at the big league level, but reinforcements are on the way. The Pirates boast three top 50 pitching prospects according to Keith Law. Right-hander Paul Skenes (#10 on Law's list) leads the way and should get the call-up at some point this season. Jared Jones (#39) and Bubba Chandler (#48), both righties, could get some innings at the big league level this year as well. While it might not come to fruition this season, the future is bright in Pittsburgh and I'm excited to watch the first steps in 2024.
24. Los Angeles Angels
2024 will be the first season since the 2017 campaign in which the Angels will field a roster that does not feature Shohei Ohtani. The most painful aspect of losing Ohtani for Angels fans is the fact that they got nothing in return except a measly compensation pick, #75 overall in this year's draft. Arte Moreno and Perry Minasian had every opportunity to trade Ohtani last offseason or at the trade deadline last July, but decided to keep him because the ticket sales were too good to pass up.
The on-field product in Anaheim this summer is certainly not going to be any better than it was the previous six seasons when Ohtani was under contract. I feel for Ron Washington, who will take the reigns as manager of the Angels this year after seven seasons as the third-base coach in Atlanta. Mike Trout is 32 and coming off a season in which he only played 82 games due to injury. Trout has not played 150 or more games since 2016. Third-baseman Anthony Rendon hasn't played more than 58 games since signing with the Angels before the 2020 season. Youngsters catcher Logan O'Hoppe, outfielder Mikey Moniak, and infielder Nolan Schanuel will look to lead the next generation of Angels talent. Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson, and Chase Silseth will lead what projects to be a pretty weak rotation. The bullpen, headlined by closer Carlos Estévez, should be a strength for the Halos. They signed Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis GarcÃa, Adam Cimber, Zach Plesac, and José Cisnero this winter to help bolster the pen. Considering the farm system is one of the weakest in the sport, GM Perry Minasian would be wise to move some of these arms at the deadline to get some prospects in return.
25. Miami Marlins
The Marlins, who snuck into the playoffs last year thanks to a solid pitching staff, have done nothing to improve a lineup that finished 26th in runs scored last season. In fact, they've done nothing to improve any parts of their roster. GM Kim Ng, who worked wonders to get this team into the playoffs, declined her mutual option last fall after hearing rumblings that the organization was going to hire a President of Baseball Operations above her. That POBO, Peter Bendix, took over a new-look front office this winter that has spent more time fielding calls from teams trying to trade for Miami's young starters than improving what was a playoff team last year. While Bendix and his team are focusing on improving their organization's infrastructure, spending $5 on free agents (SS Tim Anderson on a one-year deal) is inexcusable. Not even the A's did that.
The Marlins will be without 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara this season as he recovers from the Tommy John surgery he received last October. The rotation is still solid this year and is headlined by lefty Jesús Luzardo and 20-year-old righty Eury Pérez. Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, and Max Meyer expect to feature in the middle to back half of the rotation. The major question is how many of these arms will be with the team after the trade deadline.
Despite a strong rotation, I have no idea how this team is going to score runs. They are losing the 36 home runs that Jorge Soler provided last season and replaced them with... nothing. Luis Arraez hit a league-leading .348 in 2023 but scored 30 fewer runs than he did when he hit .316 in 2022 with the Twins. I love Jazz Chizholm Jr. and admire the transition he made from second base to center field, but need to see him stay healthy for a full season before I view him as a star player. Was 2023 a career year for Jake Burger or can he follow it up in 2024? The back half of that lineup is scary... for Marlins fans. The farm system is extremely weak with no notable position players. We could be looking at another rebuild in Miami as I expect this new front office to rip up the current roster and start fresh.
26. Washington Nationals
I'm higher on the Nationals than most and am happy to admit a lot of that is because CJ Abrams was a stellar pickup for my fantasy team last year. The 23-year-old shortstop, acquired in the Juan Soto trade with San Diego in 2022, hit 18 home runs and had 47 stolen bases last year. He still has plenty of room for development, but should be a key piece of this new Nationals core that also features catcher Keibert Ruiz and pitchers Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore. The true gems of the Nationals organization are still in their farm system. Dylan Crews (#7), James Wood (#19), Brady House (#53), and Cade Cavalli (#74) all rank in Keith Law's top 100 prospect list and should join the big league club at some point in 2024. The Nationals will finally be free of the Patrick Corbin contract next offseason after paying him a staggering $35 million in 2024. With a solid farm system, quality youth already at the big league level, and more financial flexibility next offseason, the Nationals could quietly be building a winner again in DC.
27. Kansas City Royals
The Royals were surprisingly active this winter, spending $109 million in free agency, the fourth most in MLB. GM J.J. Picollo focused on pitching, which was a terrible unit for the Royals last season, ranking 28th in team ERA (5.17). Picollo signed Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Chris Stratton in free agency and acquired Kyle Wright, Nick Anderson, Ryan Brady, Carlos Matero, and Cesar Espinal via trade. 26-year-old lefty Cole Ragans, acquired in the Aroldis Chapman trade last June, will look to build off an impressive 2023 campaign. KC also signed hitters Hunter Renfroe and Adam Frazier.
Picollo's activity this offseason was likely all in an attempt to show star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. that a winner can be built in Kansas City again. In what was their most important move this offseason, the Royals signed Witt Jr., 23, to an 11-year $288 million extension. While the deal includes opt-outs after the seventh year, Witt Jr. will be playing in Kansas City during his prime years - a major win for Royals and small-market fans. I have them 27th right now, but the Royals could hit lightning in a bottle this season and have some success in what shapes up to be a weak AL Central.
28. Colorado Rockies
The Rockies have spent a whopping $3.5 million on free agents this offseason. They signed catcher Jacob Stallings for $2 million and pitcher Dakota Hudson for $1.5 million, both one-year deals. Pitcher Cal Quantrill was acquired in a trade with the Guardians. If we're being honest, Rockies fans spent the offseason watching the Avalanche and Nuggets and will continue to do so throughout their playoff runs.
Despite an uneventful offseason, the Rockies have some young talent to keep an eye out for in 2024. Left fielder Nolan Jones and shortstop Ezequiel Tovar have star potential. Second baseman Brendan Rodgers is back after only playing 46 games last year due to shoulder surgery. Star prospect right-hander Chase Dollander could be knocking on the door of the big leagues by the end of the season if he can reclaim the wipeout slider he deployed in 2022 at Tennessee. Position players Sterlin Thompson, Yanquiel Fernandez, Adael Amador, and Jordan Beck join Dollander in what is a vastly improved farm system. And hey, while he's not young, maybe Kris Bryant can finally stay healthy and reclaim his All-Star form. Even if everything goes right in Colorado this season, I have a hard time placing them any higher than fifth in the NL West.
29. Chicago White Sox
Chris Getz is in his first season as General Manager in Chicago and has been active this offseason. Getz brought in young pitchers Michael Soroka and Jared Shuster via trade with the Braves. He signed infielders Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong as well as one of the best defensive catchers in the game and World Series champion MartÃn Maldonado. These aren't earth-shattering moves but are at least early signs that Getz will be active in trying to improve what is a weak roster.
The White Sox are the product of a failed generation of elite prospects. Yoán Moncada, Eloy Jiménez, Andrew Vaughn, and Michael Kopech never lived up to their billing as top prospects. They are, however, all on the right side of thirty and still have the opportunity to prove themselves. After trading away a lot of their talent at last year's trade deadline, the Sox have finally built up a solid farm system again, with five top 100 prospects according to Keith Law. Getz will have the opportunity to continue to build the farm when he moves pitcher Dylan Cease, whose name has been in trade rumors all offseason. The vibes are low on the South Side at the moment but with a bolstered farm system, players playing to their potential, and a potential new stadium in the South Loop (as a native Chicagoan, I love this idea) things could be looking up for Chicago's forgotten team.
30. Oakland Athletics
You'll be hard-pressed to find a power ranking that has the A's anywhere but dead last. MLB owners approved the team's move to Las Vegas last November, but it now seems like Sin City is hesitant about the A's making the move. Owner John Fisher hasn't made much progress on his new stadium at the Tropicana site, and the mayor of Las Vegas, Carolyn Goodman, thinks the location could pose major traffic concerns for the city. The A's lease at the Coliseum in Oakland ends after this season and the team currently has no home for the 2025-2027 seasons before their planned move to Vegas in 2028, which could now be delayed as they are yet to break ground on a stadium in Vegas.
While the front office has done nothing of note to improve the roster heading into 2024, the A's do have some exciting young talent to watch this season. Second baseman Zack Gelof will look to build upon his impressive 69-game rookie season. Rookie Darell Hernaiz will be Gelof's partner up the middle. Ryan Noda will continue to be a high OBP guy. Brent Rooker is coming off an All-Star season. Can we get odds on the 2024 A's All-Star representative, DraftKings? I still own some JJ Bleday stock and hope to see the former fourth-overall pick finally have his breakout season. 25-year-old flamethrower Mason Miller will come out of the bullpen in his second year in the bigs. Paul Blackburn and JP Sears will lead a weak rotation. It's unlikely, however, that any of the A's young talent will be with the organization when it moves to Las Vegas as the front office will inevitably trade anyone of value to help John Fisher save a few extra dollars. I expect the A's to win more than the 50 games they won last year, but not by much. The fanbase deserves so much better.
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