Mac McClung stole the show at All-Star Weekend in Salt Lake City, altogether saving the dunk contest from borderline irrelevance and proving that white men can indeed jump. Unfortunately, the weekend ended with a whimper as the game itself featured less effort than my Sunday evening rec league. The game was such a joke that even the players themselves were ripping the lack of effort - hmm I wonder who can fix that? Maybe the players themselves? Just a thought. For all of its faults, All-Star Weekend is a nice break from the dog days of the NBA's grueling 82-game season. It's a great opportunity for players to rest and recover and for fans to take stock of where their team stands heading into the final stretch of the season. As we head back into the day-to-day grind of the season on Thursday, these are the six biggest storylines to follow down the stretch.
Can the Suns Come Together?
The Kevin Durant trade was seismic. It was one of the biggest trades in league history and Durant is one of the best players to ever be traded. For such a trade to happen at the trade deadline instead of the offseason was unprecedented. It changed the postseason landscape in the Western Conference and had many tabbing the Suns as prohibitive favorites to win the NBA title. As we are nearly two weeks removed from the move, it has left me with more questions than answers for the Suns.
Phoenix struggled mightily during Devin Booker's 24-game absence with a groin strain, at one point losing 12 of 14 games and falling to 21-24. The team slid down the standings, dropping all the way to 12th in the West, and sat at +1600 odds to win the title on February 1st (BetMGM). It had gotten so dark for the Suns that even team legend Charles Barkley was calling for the team to blow it up.
Since that awful 14-game stretch, Phoenix has won 11 of their last 14 games, climbing to 5th in the West with a 32-28 record, a mere half game behind the Clippers for the coveted 4th seed that comes with home-court advantage in the first round. They are currently +425 to win the title on BetMGM, second only to Boston. A lot of their recent success, however, was due in part to players that are no longer on the roster, most specifically now Brooklyn Net Mikal Bridges (aka Brooklyn Bridges).
Since Phoenix started that 14-game stretch on January 19, Bridges averaged 23.2 points with 4.5 assists while shooting 47.2% from the field, 36.1% from three, and 90.7% from the line in 37.5 (!) minutes per game. Bridges was the centerpiece of the return Brooklyn got in the Durant trade and already has a 45-point game under his belt for the Nets. He has many NBA folk wondering what his ceiling is as a player - perhaps a second-best player on a championship team? All-NBA potential? Bridges is a huge on-court loss for the Suns, but he was also a beloved teammate and his vibrance and relentless positivity will be missed in that locker room. The guy is also a warrior, he has not missed a single game in his NBA career and considering the state of load management in today's league, that is simply astounding.
Alongside Bridges, Phoenix also lost key piece Cameron Johnson in the Durant trade, cutting their rotation even thinner. The Suns' closing five projects to be Paul-Booker-Durant-Okogie/Craig-Ayton with Okogie/Craig, Warren, Landale, Ross, Shamet and Payne being key contributors off the bench. While the Booker-Durant-Ayton combination should be formidable, their depth is a bit of a cause for concern. Phoenix will be relying heavily on players like TJ Warren (averaging 9 points per game this season) and Terrence Ross (averaging 8 points per game this season) to carry the scoring load while Durant and Booker are on the bench. Does Monty Williams stagger Durant and Booker's minutes so both of them aren't resting at the same time? Out of those bench players, who has the ability to get hot and score 12 points in a second quarter to keep Phoenix afloat in a playoff game? Can Cameron Payne be a reliable backup point guard? Phoenix was thin prior to the Durant trade, its depth has become a bigger cause for concern following the move.
The other major questions surrounding the Suns have to do with their health and continuity. Booker has only played 4 games following his groin strain, and Durant has been on the shelf since January 8 with a sprained MCL. Booker should be a full-go after the All-Star break, but Durant remains without a timetable for return, although his comments at the All-Star game suggest he could be returning sometime this month. 37-year-old point guard Chris Paul has been up and down this year, averaging a career-low 13.7 points per game on 42.6% shooting. Paul has famously struggled with bad luck and injuries in the playoffs and is only a year older heading into this season's stretch run.
Phoenix has a mere 22 games remaining to develop chemistry between players that have never shared the floor together in an NBA setting. If you were to bet on any NBA superstar to fit right in, it would be Durant. His time in Golden State proved that he can play with anybody and make it look seamless. But Durant is now 34 years old coming off Achilles and MCL injuries and will be playing with the arguably cursed Chris Paul and Devin Booker who is also coming off a significant injury. The Suns have 22 games to get healthy, develop continuity on the court and try to earn home-court advantage in the West. They make the Durant trade 10 times out of 10, but Phoenix is still surrounded by a myriad of questions and is certainly no lock to win the NBA Finals.
The Race for the 1-Seed in the East
Perhaps a more under-the-radar but hugely important storyline to follow down the stretch is the battle for the number one seed in the Eastern Conference between the Celtics and Bucks. Boston has held the top spot in the East for the majority of the season and looked like a juggernaut in the process, while Milwaukee has dealt with injuries and offensive struggles.
Since January 16, however, the Bucks have won 14 of 15 games and are currently riding a 12-game winning streak. They still only rank 22nd in offensive rating, but have shown significant signs of improvement on that end of the floor and hold the league's second-best defensive rating behind Cleveland. Most importantly for Milwaukee, however, Khris Middleton has played in 10 of those 12 games after missing the previous 18 with knee soreness (he also missed the first 20 games of the season following offseason wrist surgery). It seems like Middleton is finally heating up as well, he's averaged 17.0 points on 50% shooting and has shot 94.7% from the line in his last 5 games. We saw just how important Middleton is to Milwaukee's success both in their title run in 2021 and in 2022 when they bowed out in the second round with the three-time All-Star sidelined with a knee sprain. The Bucks simply need Middleton to be a legitimate second-scoring option if they have any aspirations of winning a second NBA title in three years, and early indications are that he's on his way back to being just that.
So why is the top seed so important? Well, we saw exactly why last season. The second-seeded Celtics held home-court advantage over the third-seeded Bucks, which allowed them to host the deciding Game 7 at TD Garden in Boston, instead having that game played in Milwaukee. Role-players often play better with the home crowd behind them and that was the case in Game 7 as Grant Williams had the game of his life, dropping a game-high 27 points with 7 three-pointers in a 109-81 Celtics win. Grant Williams outscored Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown in a Game 7... let that sink in. Yes, Boston did go on the road to win Game 6, which was perhaps the most impressive win for the C's in that series, but you play the regular season to have those pivotal Game 7s at home. Milwaukee certainly still has a sour taste in their mouths with the way last season ended and is determined to get that top seed in the East to avoid having to go on the road for a Game 7 in Boston again. It feels like these two squads are on a crash course to meet in the Eastern Conference Finals, and if both teams are healthy that should be a series for the ages. With the Bucks finally firing on all cylinders and Boston continuing to churn out wins, expect the race for the top seed in the East to come down to the final days of the season.
What Does the King Have Left?
I am begrudgingly putting the Lakers on this list of storylines to follow as 27-32 teams don't usually command much of a spotlight with 20 or so games remaining. Despite currently being 2 games behind the last play-in spot, the Lakers are a different story because of all the media attention they garner and the fact that they have a top-2 player of all time in his twilight years gunning for one last run at a championship.
To put it frankly, the Lakers have been a hot mess this year. The Russell Westbrook fiasco, Anthony Davis battling what has now become his annual slew of injuries, LeBron dealing with his fair share of injuries as well as the major distraction of passing Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the NBA's all-time scoring record have all dominated headlines across national NBA media while simultaneously driving fans up a wall. The Lakers *may* have finally turned a corner, however, as Westbrook is now a Clipper (wyd Clippers?!), Davis has played 9 of the last 10 games, LeBron has the scoring record and should be healthy for the stretch run, and the Lakers have a new supporting cast.
LA's final game before the All-Star break, a 120-102 win over the Pelicans, has Lakers fans optimistic for the final 23 games of the season. James and Davis combined for 49 points and 16 rebounds while new pieces D'Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley seemed to be much smoother fits than Russell Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, and Thomas Bryant ever were. The Lakers are another team that needs to gel quickly following a trade deadline move if they want to have any type of postseason success. For the record, I do not think D'Angelo Russell is any type of needle mover for this Lakers team (who is playing defense in that backcourt?) but do think Vanderbilt and Beasley are perfect fits for a LeBron James-led team. It would be genuinely stunning if the Lakers were to make it out of the Western Conference, they need to worry about making the play-in first, but it would be a treat to be able to witness one final vintage LeBron James Finals run.
The MVP Race
ESPN's Tim Bontemps released his NBA MVP Straw Poll 2.0 last Thursday. The poll, which surveys NBA media members and has historically indicated who will win the MVP award, has Denver's Nikola Jokic as the overwhelming favorite to win a third straight MVP. Jokic would be the fourth player in NBA history to win three straight MVPs, only icons Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird have achieved that feat. In the poll, Jokic earned 77 first-place votes and 15 second-place votes, while Giannis Antetokounmpo garnered 11 first-place votes, 38 second-place votes, and 25 third-place votes. Joel Embiid was also in the mix with 6 first-place votes, 24 second-place votes, and 33 third-place votes.
Sportsbooks have Jokic as the overwhelming favorite as well. DraftKings Sportsbook currently has Jokic as a -250 favorite with Joel Embiid (+450) and Giannis (+700) as the only viable contenders behind the Serbian center. My question is, why are Embiid and Giannis not being considered more for this award? The fact that Jokic earned 66 (!) more first-place votes than Antetokounmpo in Bontemps' straw poll and is a -250 favorite is laughable. I'm sorry, but Jokic has not been 66 first-place votes better than Giannis this season.
To compare the three statistically:
Jokic - 51 G, 24.7 PTS, 11.5 REB, 10.1 AST, .632/.391/.822, 3.5 TOV, average defender. Denver is 41-18 and first in the West
Embiid - 45 G, 33.1 PTS, 10.2 REB, 4.1 AST, .537/.355/.858, 3.2 TOV, solid defender. Philly is 38-19 and third in the East (3 GB)
Antetokounmpo - 47 G, 31.8 PTS, 12.2 REB, 5.4 AST, .538/.270/.646, 4.0 TOV, game-changing defender. Milwaukee is 41-17 and second in the East (0.5 GB)
What stands out for Jokic compared to the other two candidates are his assist numbers and his efficiency. The Joker toys with opposing defenses and picks them apart with never seen before passes; he is truly the best passing big man of all time. Jokic is, however, an incredibly average defender, which should at least be of some consequence in this MVP race. Giannis is averaging 7.1 more points per game than Jokic, is 0.1 rebounds per game away from leading the league in boards, all while being an All-Defensive First-Team candidate; he is a game-changer on both ends of the floor. Voters should take that into account when casting their ballots this spring. Embid, who I think is the outlier in this race, is a mere 0.2 points per game behind Luka Doncic for the scoring title. Jokic does not lead the league in any major counting statistic.
What if Embiid goes on a tear and Philly magically secures the first seed in the East? What if Giannis propels Milwaukee to the first seed in the East (and the best record in the league) and is a clear-cut choice for First-Team All-Defense? I am not taking away from Nikola Jokic's greatness, he is astounding and has been a treat to watch these past three seasons, I just think the MVP race is a lot closer than the Bontemps straw poll suggests. Both Giannis and Embiid have legitimate cases and pathways down the stretch to make a real run for this award. If I were you, I would go ahead and sprinkle a little change on that Giannis +700. I already did.
The Wembanyama Sweepstakes
It's about to get even uglier at the bottom of the NBA standings as teams jockey for prime positioning to acquire generational prospect Victor Wembanyama in this year's draft. Scoot Henderson, who would be the first overall pick in any other draft, is a great "consolation" prize at number two as well. So who are the real players in the Wembanyama sweepstakes?
With the bottom three teams in the league each having a 14% chance at the first pick in the draft lottery, Houston (13-45), San Antonio (14-45), and Detroit (15-44) are currently the leaders in the clubhouse heading into the final stretch. Hats off to San Antonio for showing no regard for any form of entertaining basketball and ripping off an *active* 14-game losing streak. There is also Charlotte (17-43) currently sitting with the fourth-worst record, which would give them a 12.50% chance at the first pick. The Magic (24-35) hold the fifth-worst record, which would give them a 10.50% chance at the first pick (still good odds!). Orlando, however, represents the cut-off between "blatantly tanking for Wemby" and "eh, they could go either way."
That is what makes these sweepstakes so fascinating. Wembanyama is arguably a better prospect than LeBron James was back in 2003. Teams are going to do whatever it takes to give themselves the best odds possible to get that first overall pick. Are teams like Orlando, Indiana, and Utah willing to pull the plug on the final twenty games of the season to try to get a 10-12.50% chance at getting Wemby? Will San Antonio win another game this season? Can Charlotte hop into the bottom three? Who is the next star player amongst these teams to get shut down for the rest of the season? It is terrible basketball to watch at this end of the league, but all of the losing will pay off for whatever team has the ping-pong balls land in their favor in the draft lottery.
Which Top Seed will Get Screwed?
Jockeying for specific playoff matchups is something that always happens in the final week of the regular season. Teams purposely lose games in the final week to try to get what they believe is an easier matchup in the first round of the playoffs. This year is a bit unique in the sense that there is a legitimate title contender looming in the play-in spots, as well as some brutal potential first-round matchups in the lower half of the standings. This leads one to wonder: which top seed will end up getting the short end of the stick and have to play one of these teams?
The Golden State Warriors are obviously that Finals contender looming in the play-in positions. They currently sit 9th in the West (29-29) with Stephen Curry sidelined until mid-March or early April with partial tears in two lower-leg ligaments. Golden State has battled injuries to key players all season and has had trouble filling out the back end of their rotation, especially with young players like Moses Moody and James Wiseman (now in Detroit) not living up to expectations. With all of the struggles Golden State has gone through this season, they would still be an absolute nightmare of a first-round matchup, if fully healthy, for whatever team they get matched up with. The Warriors have never lost a playoff series with Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green fully healthy. If things can come together for them down the stretch, they will be an extremely tough out in the playoffs. Why does it feel like destiny for the Warriors and Grizzlies to meet in the first round?
Other brutal first-round matchups currently in play-in positions would be New Orleans (again with the health caveat), the Lakers (if they get it together as discussed above), and Miami. Out of those three, the team I would least want to face in the first round is undoubtedly the Heat. They aren't flashy and certainly haven't played to their full potential so far this season, but the Heat would still pose a grueling 7-game series to whomever they get in the first round. After somehow snagging Kevin Love from Cleveland in the buy-out market, Miami now has a legitimate bench-scoring threat, something that they had been missing on the roster this season. They are filled with guys you have probably never heard of, but play hard-nosed defense and have one of the league's best postseason performers in Jimmy Butler. Miami has a roster built for a grind-it-out playoff series. Heck, they were one shot away from being in the NBA Finals last year. If you are Boston, Milwaukee, or Philadelphia, you are almost certainly doing whatever you can do to avoid Miami in the first round.
All stats courtesy of basketballreference.com (https://www.basketball-reference.com/)
Cover image courtesy of David Brandt | The Associated Press
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