William Locke | The Critic's Corner
Fred Lynn, 1975. Ichiro Suzuki, 2001.
That is the list of players that have won MLB's Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards in the same season. With the MVP being established in 1911 and the Rookie of the Year dating back to 1947, this feat has been accomplished only twice in the 75 seasons both awards have been active. Corbin Carroll has a chance to become the third player to achieve this incredibly rare feat.
Carroll, the 5'10" (on a good day) 170-pound (also on a good day) outfielder from Seattle, was the top-rated prospect in baseball heading into the 2023 season. Thanks to his world-class speed, ability to make consistent contact at the plate, plus power, plate discipline, and defense in the outfield, scouts and media members projected him as a potential franchise-caliber player. Not even the most bullish fan, scout, or executive could have anticipated the 22-year-old having this big of an impact in his first full season in the Major Leagues.
After playing 32 games and having 115 at-bats last season (falling just under the 130 at-bat mark that would have lost him his rookie eligibility), the Diamondbacks came into this season expecting Carroll to play a key role on a young team with sneaky playoff aspirations, taking his first steps towards becoming that franchise player. He has blown those expectations out of the water, hitting a .290/.369/.558 slash line (his AVG was above .300 prior to a 2-for-14 weekend in San Francisco) with a .927 OPS, 16 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 3.5 Fangraphs WAR. These gaudy numbers have placed Carroll in the thick of the NL MVP race and made him the clear favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year (although Elly De La Cruz and Eury Perez might have something to say about that). Carroll currently ranks second in stolen bases, second in slugging percentage, second in fWAR, tenth in batting average, third in runs scored, third in extra-base hits, and fifth in on-base plus slugging (OPS) in the National League this season. More impressively, Carroll ranks third amongst ALL hitters in fWAR, only behind Ronald Acuna Jr. and Wander Franco. Not too shabby for a rookie! Diving deeper into Carroll's metrics, take a look at his Baseball Savant page:
Anytime you see a lot of red, that is good. Not only does Carroll have elite speed, ranking in the ninety-ninth percentile in all of baseball (currently the seventh-fastest player in sprint speed), he hits the ball hard, does not swing and miss much, gets great jumps in the outfield, and arguably most importantly, peppers the ball to all parts of the field.
The one knock on Carroll is his arm strength, where he ranks in the thirty-fourth percentile across the league. While Carroll played center field in the Minor Leagues, he has spent most of his time this season in left field, with Alek Thomas, who has a stronger arm, manning center. The plan seems to have worked, as the Diamondbacks currently rank sixth in baseball in DRS (defensive runs saved), and seventh in Def (defensive runs above average).
Carroll's swing mechanics project consistent production to all parts of the field throughout his career and, in certain aspects, remind me of a former Diamondback and current NL MVP, Paul Goldschmidt (a player known for his ability to hit to all parts of the field). Let's take a deep dive into Corbin Carroll's swing mechanics, comparing them to the seven-time All-Star Goldschmidt. (Shoutout to Pastime Athletics for the YouTube videos - go check out their content if you are into swing mechanics!)
Stance:
The first similarity you notice between the two's swings is their starting set-up. Both players hold their hands high, near their heads, with the bat facing downwards at about a 55-degree angle. Why do this? Every player has their stance preferences, some choose a stance based on comfort, while others pick a stance because it helps them get to certain "checkpoints" in the swing much easier. At the end of the day, there is no perfect science to the starting stance, Gary Sheffield was a nine-time All-Star with one of the funkiest stances you will ever see. Carr0ll and Goldschmidt's set-ups help them keep the bat flat through the zone and reduce unnecessary movements in the swing.
The Load:
This is where we start to see some differences in swings - but the similarities are still there. Carroll clearly uses a large leg kick, shifting his weight onto his back foot, before driving forward with that back leg onto his front, plant foot. This is how Carroll, a much smaller person than Goldschmidt, generates his power. Goldschmidt does a simpler toe tap for his load, but can still generate power thanks to his bigger frame and strong legs. Despite the smaller load, Goldschmidt typically hits around 30 home runs per season.
The similarities between the two swings are in their hands. Notice how Carroll and Goldschmidt's hands hardly move from their start into their load? They are both able to get into a good hitting position easily thanks to their set-ups. The less "noise" (aka actions) in the loading process, the easier it is to hit the ball consistently; you are not relying on a bunch of different actions coming together at the right time. A simplified upper half (and swing in general) tends to equate to consistent, quality contact.
So what's behind the power surge for Carroll this season? He has 16 home runs through 76 games in 2023, whereas he hit 4 bombs in 32 games in 2022. Scouts had Carroll as a 50-grade power hitter as a prospect, which is considered league average. No one projected him to have nearly 20 homers before the All-Star break, in fact, if Carroll finished with 20 on the entire season that would have been considered a successful power season for the 22-year-old.
The answer may lie in that deeper load. The photo used above (Carroll in the white jersey) is from the 2023 season, whereas the one below is from 2022. Both screenshots are from the deepest part of that leg kick - notice how Carroll lifts that leg higher and loads much further back onto his back foot in 2023 vs. 2022? Carroll's load in 2022 is more of a toe tap, similar to Goldschmidt's, rather than the deep leg kick he has deployed in 2023.
While this load has helped generate more power for Carroll in the first half of the 2023 season, it could potentially cause some minor, but fixable, issues moving forward. Check out the differences between Carroll and Goldschmidt as they get their front foot down and begin the swing.
Start of Swing:
'23 Carroll:
'22 Carroll:
Carroll's legs, in both '22 and '23, are WAY wider when he plants his front foot than Goldschmidt's are. Carroll, again with a much smaller frame, is generating almost all of his power from his legs, whereas Goldschmidt is able to generate power through his legs AND the torque that he creates in his hips thanks to his legs being much closer together. Carroll isn't creating as much torque in his hips as Goldschmidt does due to his wider base. Getting out on his front foot the way Carroll is can lead to problems adjusting to different pitches. Look at his splits against fastball vs. offspeed:
In 2022 with the much quieter load, Carroll did most of his damage against breaking pitches, whereas in 2023 with the bigger load, Carroll is crushing fastballs but struggling against offspeed and breaking balls. This tells me that he is sitting fastball and struggling to adjust to breaking pitches. The timing of his load could be the cause of this, as it is hard to time that big of a load and get everything set in time to hit all types of pitches.
The knock on Carroll as a prospect was his ability to hit high velocity - the deeper load typically makes it more difficult to get that front foot down in time to start the swing, causing him to be late on fastballs. Yes, the load has helped Carroll hit for unexpected power, but will he be able to keep this up over the rest of the season? Expect pitchers to give Carroll a steady dosage of breaking balls throughout the rest of the season, his ability to adjust will determine if he is able to keep up his scorching hot start. For comparison's sake, here are Goldschmidt's splits over the last two seasons:
Goldy crushed fastballs in his 2022 MVP season, but his breaking and offspeed numbers were quite impressive as well. He is hitting .429 on offspeed pitches in 2023, has 5 homers on breaking balls, and 6 on fastballs. Goldschmidt puts up numbers against every pitch, largely thanks to the simplicity of his swing. His quiet load and hands in addition to his balanced lower half give him the ability to adjust quickly if the pitcher throws him an offspeed or breaking pitch. The first couple of pieces of Carroll and Goldschmidt's are strikingly similar, so the potential is there for Carroll to make an adjustment.
In case you were wondering what the difference between "offspeed" and "breaking" is.
Contact:
'23 Carroll:
'22 Carroll:
The main difference between Carroll and Goldy at contact, again, is their legs. Carroll really drives his back leg forward and almost has it off of the ground (a la Bryce Harper) at contact. Goldy does the same but keeps his legs much closer together and has a straighter front leg than Carroll. Both find success with their different approaches, but Goldschmidt, again, crushes all types of pitches thanks to his simple and compact swing.
Follow Through:
'23 Carroll:
'22 Carroll:
A small but important note here that could potentially be another way to help explain Carroll's 2023 power surge. Notice how Carroll is finishing with one hand on the bat in 2023 vs. two hands in 2022? Different hitting coaches have different preferences on how many hands they want their hitters to finish their swing with. My philosophy is that after making contact with the ball, the top hand serves no purpose in the swing other than to roll over and create topspin on the ball. This can turn home runs into doubles or flyouts. Plenty of MLB players finish with two hands on the bat and hit for 30+ home runs a season, so I am in no way knocking them. As seen above, Goldy is a two-hand on-the-bat finisher and that works for him. Carroll, however, made this simple adjustment to his swing in 2023 and is likely creating much more topspin on the ball simply by releasing his top hand after impact, helping the ball fly out of the ballpark instead of landing at the warning track. With his smaller frame, he needs every advantage he can get from a power perspective.
The adjustments Carroll has made to his swing in his first full season in the bigs have undoubtedly led to his unprecedented power surge. I do worry slightly that Carroll may be selling out on the fastball in order to hit for power a little too much, getting away from what made him such a highly coveted prospect. All Carroll has to do is put the ball in play and he has a chance to get on base thanks to his world-class speed. Then again, he is hitting fastballs better than he has at any point in his career, so what do I know?
So, can Carroll become the third rookie in MLB history to win the Rookie of the Year and MVP in the same season? If the season ended today, the answer would be no, as Ronald Acuna Jr would take home the NL MVP. Let's compare the two statistically as we sit two weeks away from the All-Star Break. Note: Acuna has 356 plate appearances to Carroll's 313.
Acuna: .328/.402/.561, .962 OPS, 16 HR, 47 RBI, 158 wRC+, 35 SB (35-41), 3.9 fWAR
Carroll: .290/.369/.558, .927 OPS, 16 HR, 41 RBI, 147 wRC+, 23 SB (23-25), 3.5 fWAR
Acuna plays on the best team in baseball, the Atlanta Braves, but Carroll's Diamondbacks are in first place in the NL West at 47-32, good enough for the second-best record in the entire National League. Both players are the best offensive performers on first-place teams, so team success should not be a metric in determining the NL MVP this season (nor should it ever in baseball in my opinion). Acuna, at the moment, is the clear favorite, and Vegas agrees:
The good news for Carroll and Diamondbacks fans is the fact that we still have around 80 games left in the season, giving Carroll plenty of time to chase down Acuna in the MVP race. If Carroll can start sitting on and ultimately hitting offspeed and breaking pitches at a higher level than he is at the moment, expect him to chase Acuna for the award into the final weeks of the season. I sprinkled a little cash on Carroll to win MVP, after all, it is impossible to root against a rookie battling some of the biggest names in the game so early on in his career.
Full Goldschmidt swing video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgv77wcmJc0
'23 Carroll swing video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1JyM9Z_04Q
'22 Carroll swing video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGic6WwhCrw
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